63win Where Harris Has Gained and Lost Support Compared With Biden
63win Where Harris Has Gained and Lost Support Compared With Biden
When Kamala Harris became her party’s nominee, she inherited a Democratic coalition in shambles.
As she wraps up her party’s convention one month later, she’s well on her way toward stitching it back together.
In this month’s New York Times/Siena College battleground polls, she led Donald J. Trump by two percentage points across the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency, compared with Mr. Trump’s five-point lead in May.
It’s an enormous shift, but Vice President Harris didn’t improve equally among all demographic groups. Instead, she made big gains among young, nonwhite and female voters, and made relatively few or no gains among older voters and white men.
The groups where Harris gained the most support NET CHANGEMAY TO AUGUST 1. Somewhat unfavorable view of Trump R+11 → D+36 (n=195) +46 pts. More Dem. 2. Income less than $25k D+8 → D+28 (n=281) +20 pts. More Dem. 3. Nonwhite under age 45 D+7 → D+24 (n=604) +17 pts. More Dem. 4. Live in a city D+25 → D+42 (n=530) +17 pts. More Dem. 5. Women under age 45 D+9 → D+26 (n=736) +16 pts. More Dem. 6. Regular TikTok user D+3 → D+18 (n=901) +15 pts. More Dem. 7. Somewhat liberal D+65 → D+79 (n=402) +14 pts. More Dem. 8. Self-identified moderate D+14 → D+27 (n=1,315) +13 pts. More Dem. 9. Nonwhite other (not Black or Hispanic) R+5 → D+7 (n=322) +12 pts. More Dem. 10. Age 30 to 44 R+8 → D+4 (n=897) +12 pts. More Dem.Source: NYT/Siena battleground polls in Pa., Mich., Wis., Ariz., Nev. and Ga. "Nonwhite other" includes Asian; Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander; Native American or Alaska Native; multiple races; Middle Eastern and North African.
If you drew up a list of President Biden’s challenges this cycle, you could probably find a demographic group corresponding to each one on this list of Ms. Harris’s biggest gains.
There’s young, nonwhite and low-turnout voters, and the places they tend to live. There’s the lowest-income voters, who suffered through rising prices. There’s even the TikTok users immersed in the bad vibes of the Biden era. The Muslim and Arab voters angry about the war in Gaza don’t make the list, but only because of their small sample size (just 55 respondents in August) — they would have been No. 1 on the list with a net swing of 49 points toward Ms. Harris.
The groups where Harris lost support or gained the least NET CHANGEMAY TO AUGUST 1. Somewhat conservative R+53 → R+63 (n=587) +10 pts. More Rep. 2. Very conservative R+85 → R+88 (n=545) +3 pts. More Rep. 3. Republican R+88 → R+89 (n=1,153) +1 pts. More Rep. 4. Very favorable view of Trump R+97 → R+97 (n=999) <1 pts. More Rep. 5. White men R+25 → R+24 (n=1,279) +1 pts. More Dem. 6. Rarely uses social media R+3 → R+2 (n=422) +1 pts. More Dem. 7. Trump ‘20 voter R+93 → R+91 (n=1,429) +2 pts. More Dem. 8. Nonwhite over age 45 D+36 → D+39 (n=541) +2 pts. More Dem. 9. Rural R+34 → R+31 (n=811) +3 pts. More Dem. 10. Income $50-100k R+3 → R<1 (n=979) +3 pts. More Dem.Source: NYT/Siena battleground polls in Pa., Mich., Wis., Ariz., Nev. and Ga.
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